What happens when you unleash a brilliant statistician like Nate Silver on a mountain of polling data? You get a set of predictions based on that data and not a partisan hack’s gut.
Nate Silver has a blog at the New York Times website where he uses the data taken from polls and essentially puts odds on the outcome of the election. He even breaks it down state by state. The data on his site today is from polls taken yesterday. This is good, current information, and the analysis is done with math, not the opinion of paid pundits. Right now, Silver’s analysis of the data gives Obama a lead going in to today’s election with a 90.9% chance of winning.
If you find politics, odds-making or statistics in the least bit interesting, I highly recommend that you check out the FiveThirtyEight blog.
The will of the people? Boehner has no interest in it. He only cares about your right to be heard if you agree with him and his. As such, he has publicly stated that he is counting on Latinos and Black people not showing up at the polls this November. See for yourself at the link below.
While it has been a foregone conclusion that Mitt Romney secure the GOP nomination and go on to face President Obama in the general election this November, he wasn’t officially the nominee until today (or if you’re reading this later, Tuesday).
As I write this, delegates are still voting, but it was New Jersey that put Mr. Romney over the top. Congratulations to Mitt Romney. While I’m not a supporter of his, I can certainly appreciate how hard he and his staff worked (and how much was spent) to get to this point.
On a personal note, I encourage you all to go out and openly mock anyone who thought Ron Paul would get the nomination at the convention. It’s also worth noting that once Romney secured the nomination, convention organizers silenced Ron Paul supporters.
Jon Huntsman was easily my favorite candidate in the 2012 GOP Primary. His realistic worldview and pragmatic solutions were a welcome contrast to the ideological buffoonery to which American politicians have made us all grow accustomed. As a candidate, Jon Huntsman’s ideas were all grounded in reality and informed by his ideological views. Looking at the other candidates, I saw ideologues desperately trying to clinging to their political dogma, distorting reality to pretend their tired, old ideas even applied to today’s world. When other candidates where sticking to talking points and pandering for applause, Huntsman was speaking truth to power, no matter how unpopular. The people I talked to, at least the ones that knew of him, agreed with me. What confused me most about Huntsman’s failure to gain traction with the Republican party was the face that he had already gained so much traction with independents and Democrats. If there was one guy who had a chance to take voters away from President Obama, it was Jon Huntsman. Even the hacky, liberal blogger that is me was thinking, “I hope I get a chance to vote for this guy.” It’s a sad day when the man with the best ideas not only loses but loses so badly that he doesn’t finish the race.
After joining the Ford Motor Company’s board of directors and fairly low profile (for a guy who just ran for president), Huntsman continued to support the GOP (he still does), but when they disinvited him from a Florida fundraiser, took a moment to remind us why he’s so awesome:
“This is what they do in China on party matters if you talk off script,”
“A guy named Michael Moore who went on television and said ‘That Huntsman guy. He’s a Republican I think I could support’ to be followed up by Jimmy Carter who said ‘This Huntsman guy: I think he’s somebody I could support’ to be followed up by Bill Clinton, who went on television and said ‘He seems pretty un-hidebound. He’s a Republican I think I could’ — we were so toast in Iowa by then.”
What got him disinvited? He said it would be good if a third party candidate entered the race.
Republicans, you had the chance to save your party and nominate a man that seems to be the second coming of Eisenhower. Instead, you chose Mitt Romney.
I’m an admitted political junkie. To me, the political realm is the ultimate reality show. It’s a brash, high-stakes battle between competing visions for the future of a nation with global implications. Sure, it’s frustrating when no one is having a debate based in reality and facts, but that’s part of what makes it so entertaining. Following politics can be tedious, and identifying yourself politically can be more challenging. Sure, all of the parties have their talking points and soundbites, but what do they really stand for? Heck, what do you really stand for? There many online quizzes that claim to have insight in to your political beliefs, but I have found two that actually ask what you value instead of which candidates you like. Check out the quizzes and image source after the jump.
Right now there is a lot of talk about whether or not the long primary is good for the Grand Ol’ Party. The RNC soundbite is that the long primary season is a great chance for the electorate to meet the candidates. They compare this election to the 2008 Democratic Party presidential primary. To me and many others this long primary means that the eventual nominee will have been dragged through the mud enough times to significantly weaken his candidacy. Read More…
GQ has a great interview up with former Senator Russ Feingold. Feingold served 18 years in Congress and is known for the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (aka McCain-Feingold) and for being the one vote against the PATRIOT Act. Until he was ousted in 2010′s Tea Party wave, he was, arguably, the most important progressive voice in Congress.
Recently, GQ’s Mark Byrne sat down for an interview with Mr. Feingold. Here is an excerpt:
A week after Obama is sworn in I’ve got people coming to town meetings with, like, little tea bags and I’m saying, “Well, what’s your complaint? That he didn’t wear the right suit at the inaugural? What is the deal? He hasn’t done anything.” Most of my town hall meetings had always been love fests, and some of my guys used to complain: “I’d like for somebody to yell at you a bit.” Sure enough, all of a sudden that’s all it was. And my supporters that were in the room were becoming scared. First, they become intimidated to the point where they don’t speak. Then they don’t show up. So I’m possibly one of the only Americans who was in the room, maybe 150 times, with these Tea Party people, who was not a part of them. I was there. This was clearly a corporate-generated myth and these Tea Party people, many of whom were completely genuine, were taken for a ride. They were completely co-opted by the Republican party, totally bamboozled. Occupy Wall Street is a real movement. The Tea Party ended up being a shill for corporate America.
Naturally, I watched this year’s Super Bowl streaming online, so I missed the big, fancy Super Bowl ads. Instead, I just saw commercials for an action movie I won’t see and a commercial telling me to watch Chevy Super Bowl commercials on YouTube. It was a strange marketing experience in itself and got stranger this morning when I reentered the real world and saw the reaction to a bunch of stuff I hadn’t seen.
The most absurd reactions seem to have been generated by a Chrysler commercial called “Half-Time in America”. The ad stars and is narrated by Republican Actor, Director, Former Mayor, Critic of the Auto Bailouts and Herman Cain Supporter Clint Eastwood. Video and full post here.